It is clear that Merz is going to become the next Chancellor of Germany—just as it was clear that Keir Starmer was destined to become the UK’s next Prime Minister, despite lacking charisma. Friedrich Merz’s weak point is his lack of authenticity. He reacts to events around him rather than following a defined political course. The only authentic thing about him is his long-standing dream of becoming Chancellor—a dream Angela Merkel took away from him in 2002.
One of his latest desperate moves to prove he is prepared to lead is a new bill granting federal police more power to control and arrest illegal immigrants in Germany. The bill also permanently stops family reunification for asylum seekers. It was introduced in reaction to a knife attack in Aschaffenburg (Bavaria) on January 22, 2025. The attacker was a mentally ill asylum seeker whose application had been closed in 2023 and was determined to leave Germany by the end of 2023. Notably, this wasn’t a racially motivated act—the attacker killed a two-year-old Moroccan girl, a 41-year-old German man, and injured three others, including a two-year-old Syrian girl. Within a week, Merz had a bill ready for a vote in the Bundestag.
It is unusual for a party that is not part of the government to introduce a bill and even secure a majority vote. Merz achieved this by aligning with the far-right AfD (Alternative für Deutschland). Major parties in the Bundestag have long refused to cooperate with the AfD, even at the municipal level. Yet, Merz broke this taboo, knowing it was his only way to secure a majority for his proposal. It was a symbolic move, not a strategic one. The next elections are on February 23rd, and the CDU is already expected to win a majority. He could have passed the bill after the elections without needing the AfD’s support.
By breaking this taboo against working with the far right, Merz has only added to the confusion among undecided voters. Their indecisiveness stems from the lack of strong, charismatic candidates. After the chaotic coalition of the SPD, Greens, and FDP, voters are seeking stability and a new face. The two main alternatives are Friedrich Merz (CDU) and Alice Weidel (AfD).
Two main issues make the AfD dangerous. The first is their rhetoric—many of their statements mirror those of the Nazi Party. A central theme in their ideology is that German culture should be dominant in society, and their refusal of multiculturalism. This can easily be interpreted as a claim of German cultural superiority, a belief that echoes Hitler’s ideology. The historical consequences of such ideas are rising nationalism, hate, and violence against non-blond, “bio-Germans” and foreigners.
The second problem is the people within the party. Many AfD politicians make ambiguous statements that deliberately flirt with Nazi-era language. A prime example is Björn Höcke, a prominent AfD politician and member of the Thuringian state parliament. Höcke, a historian and social scientist, let‘s repeat that another time: a historian and social scientist, once publicly declared, “Alles für Deutschland” (“Everything for Germany”)—a slogan used by the SA (Sturmabteilung), the Nazi Party’s paramilitary wing. In court, he claimed ignorance of its Nazi connection but was ultimately found guilty.
As for Merz, his lack of government experience is another weakness. He served as a Bundestag member from 1994 to 2009 but spent the next decade in corporate roles, including a board director at BlackRock Germany from 2016 to 2020. Many Germans view his association with BlackRock critically—the firm is the world’s largest investment company, managing over $11 trillion globally. But this is only part of the problem.
Merz faces a pragmatic, experienced, and ambitious rival who is ready to take over when he inevitably fails—Markus Söder. Söder has been the Minister-President of Bavaria since 2018 and is one of Germany’s most charismatic politicians. His ambition to become Chancellor became evident in 2021. During the COVID-19 pandemic, he positioned himself as a decisive leader, boosting his popularity. However, in 2021, he lacked enough support within the CDU due to Bavaria’s unique political standing—it is Germany’s richest and most arrogant state. This time, Söder has learned from his mistakes. He is patiently waiting for the CDU to ask him to become their candidate. In a direct contest against Merz, he wouldn’t win—not because Merz is the better politician, but because Merz has many loyalists within the party. But once Merz’s government fails, Söder will emerge as the only viable alternative, and he will secure the CDU’s support.
It is now clearer than ever that the next Chancellor will face an impossible task: forming a coalition in a deeply divided political landscape. Many voters are undecided, and so will be the election results. Even if a coalition is formed, it is unlikely to be stable or functional for the next four years. Which will pave the way for a snap election, very soon.
Friedrich Merz will soon find himself alongside Armin Laschet in the CDU’s “losers’ corner.” His rival, Markus Söder, is likely to be Germany’s next Chancellor. If you want to know who will lead Germany, skip this election and wait for the next one—it’s coming much sooner than most expect.
References: